Sam Olsen
Research & Publications
Sam Olsen's research examines how international power is created, exercised and sustained, with particular emphasis on China's growing influence, technological competition and the changing world order.
His work combines historical and geopolitical analysis with quantitative modelling and artificial intelligence to explore how countries acquire structural influence through economic networks, industrial capacity, technology and international institutions.
He has authored and co-authored research for governments, academic institutions and international think tanks, examining subjects ranging from China's strategic influence and artificial intelligence to critical supply chains, international security and Taiwan.
Current Research
Geopolitical Power, Economic Systems and International Influence
Simon Industrial Fellowship, University of Manchester | 2026–present
Sam's current research examines how states acquire and sustain international influence through industrial capability, economic networks, critical technologies and control over strategically important parts of the global economy.
The research combines historical analysis with quantitative geopolitical modelling, exploring the changing foundations of international power and the strategic choices available to countries in an increasingly contested world.
Publications
1. China & The Changing World Order
Geopolitics in China
Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary Geopolitics | 2024
Sam Olsen and William Matthews
Examines how geopolitical thinking has evolved in China, exploring the historical experiences, strategic traditions and contemporary political ideas shaping Beijing's understanding of international power and its place in the world.
Southeast Asia's Emerging Geopolitical Order: China's Structural Influence and the Evolving Regional Balance of Power
Evenstar Institute | 2023
Sam Olsen and William Matthews
Develops an approach to measuring China's structural influence across Southeast Asia, examining how economic, political and institutional relationships create dependencies that can shape countries' strategic choices and alter the regional balance of power.
The 52nd Meridian Challenge: Keeping the Trade and Transport Links Between Europe and Asia Open to Western Alignment Traffic
Adarga Research Institute | 2025
Sam Olsen and William Matthews
Examines the strategic vulnerability of the trade and transport networks connecting Europe and Asia, highlighting how geopolitical competition and threats to critical routes could undermine Western economic security and international connectivity.
2. AI, Technology & Economic Power
Governing a 'Fourth Industrial Revolution': Implications of China's Approaches to AI Strategy and Regulation
Adarga Research Institute | 2024
Sam Olsen, William Matthews and Di Cooke
Examines China's approach to artificial intelligence, including its strategic ambitions, governance and regulatory frameworks. Explores how Beijing's policies could influence technological competition, international standards and the future distribution of economic and geopolitical power.
An Overlooked Risk: China's Indirect Influence Over the United Kingdom's National Security Supply Chain
Evenstar Institute | 2022
Sam Olsen and William Matthews
Investigates how Chinese influence can extend into British national-security supply chains through indirect commercial and industrial relationships. Demonstrates how apparently separate economic dependencies can create strategic vulnerabilities in sensitive sectors.
US Critical Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Adarga Research Institute | 2024
Sam Olsen, William Matthews and Francesca Ghiretti
Analyses vulnerabilities in American critical-mineral supply chains, examining the concentration of production and processing capabilities and the strategic dependencies these create. Considers the implications for industrial resilience, economic security and competition with China.
3. International Security & Strategic Competition
The Lydian Trap
Sibylline | 2026
Sam Olsen and William Matthews
Examines the strategic, industrial and alliance dynamics of a potential prolonged US–China conflict over Taiwan. Assesses the importance of military sustainability, economic resilience and the capacity of both sides to maintain a conflict beyond its initial stages.
The Geopolitical Vulnerabilities of the UK's International Military Partnerships: A Case Study Analysis
Adarga Research Institute and Tony Blair Institute for Global Change | 2025
Sam Olsen, William Matthews, Melanie Garson and Daniel Sleat
Examines the geopolitical vulnerabilities affecting Britain's international military partnerships. Explores how the strategic relationships, external dependencies and changing international alignments of partner countries may affect the UK's defence and security interests.
Polycrisis 2027
Sibylline | 2025–2026
Sam Olsen and research collaborators
Explores how simultaneous geopolitical, economic, technological and security crises could interact to produce consequences greater than those of individual disruptions. Examines the risks created by interconnected global systems and the potential for cascading international instability.
Middle Spacepowers' Integration with the Global Supply Chain for the Space Industry: Taiwan and Thailand
Business and Politics | 2024
Kun-Chin Lin, Sam Olsen and William Matthews
A peer-reviewed academic study examining how Taiwan and Thailand participate in the global space industry. Explores the opportunities and constraints facing smaller and middle-ranking powers seeking to build technological capabilities and strengthen their positions within international industrial supply chains.